DTN Midday Livestock Comments          05/02 11:31

   Cattle Rally Upon No Bird Flu Traces Found in Ground Beef

   It's been a winning day for the livestock complex with cash cattle sales 
being higher, the complex receiving a marketing year high for export and the 
USDA's announcement on finding no traces of avian influenza in ground beef.

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   The early part of the week may have been pressured, but the cattle complex 
is back to rallying as traders can breathe easy after the USDA announced that 
they found no traces of avian influenza in the ground beef samples they look. 
July corn is up 5 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $15.40. The Dow 
Jones Industrial Average is up 126.79 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 22,500 mt for 2024 -- 
a marketing year high -- were up 48% from the previous week and 38% from the 
prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (9,600 mt), 
Japan (5,200 mt) and Taiwan (2,500 mt). Pork net sales of 33,600 mt for 2024 
were up 17% from the previous week and 6% from the previous 4-week average. The 
three primary buyers were Mexico (21,600 mt), Japan (4,200 mt) and Canada 
(1,300 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   The USDA's statement that all 30 samples taken of ground beef and tested for 
avian influenza all came back negative for the virus is the driving force as to 
why the live cattle complex is trading higher into Thursday's noon hour. The 
official USDA/FSIS statement can be assessed here: 
https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-
detections/livestock/h5n1-beef-safety-studies

   It was also encouraging to note that in this morning's export report, beef 
saw a marketing year high at 22,500 metric tons sold. With beef demand in 
question amid our stressed economics, seeing any sort of positive beef interest 
is warmly welcomed. June live cattle are up $3.17 at $177.02, August live 
cattle are up $2.82 at $173.92 and October live cattle are up $2.62 at $177.52. 
There's also been good news reported in the cash cattle complex as Northern 
dressed cattle are beginning to trade for $295 to $296, which is $1.00 to $2.00 
higher than last week's weighted average. No cattle have sold yet in the South, 
but asking prices are firm there at $185 to $186. More trade will likely 
develop throughout the day.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.20 ($293.34) and select up $0.47 
($288.54) with a movement of 108 loads (73.25 loads of choice, 15.15 loads of 
select, 4.30 loads of trim and 14.94 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   With there being ample support currently in the live cattle market, feeders 
are also trading higher as the market's biggest limiting factor has been 
technical/outside pressure and uneasiness in the live cattle complex. May 
feeders are up $3.00 at $244.45, August feeders are up $4.05 at $255.77 and 
September feeders are up $3.80 at $256.40. The market is still trading below 
its 100-day moving average, but stronger tones are a nice turnaround from the 
market's weaker tone seen earlier this week.

LEAN HOGS:

   The lean hog complex continues to trade lower although the market saw a 
relatively support export sales report. But even so, the nearby contracts 
continue to trade lower as traders are worried about stable demand 
domestically. Daily pork cutout values have been especially volatile as the 
belly continues to see ginormous daily swings. June lean hogs are down $0.95 at 
$99.47, July lean hogs are down $0.45 at $103.17 and August lean hogs are down 
$0.02 at $102.12. 

   The projected lean hog index for 5/1/2024 is up $0.32 at $90.92, and the 
actual index for 4/30/2024 is up $0.34 at $90.60. Hog prices are lower on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.63 with a weighted average price of 
$89.43, ranging from $88.00 to $93.00 on 1,192 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $90.71. Pork cutouts total 93.47 loads with 84.97 loads of pork cuts 
and 8.49 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $1.66, $99.65.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com

    

    




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